The Weekly Consensus: Week of June 7, 2010

Unsure Things

Douglas Stebbins

If there is one thing that makes investors uneasy, it’s uncertainty. So, using the stock market as a gauge of the level of uncertainty, late 2008 and early 2009, with its 40% drop in the S&P, was pure chaos. Traumatic events like the collapse or near-collapse of American icons like Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual, General Motors, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG and Merrill Lynch, among others, justify a certain sense of uneasiness, at the very least. But, while the stock market abhors uncertainty, the retail industry is predicated on the ability to know the unknowable: accurately predicting consumer preferences, buying patterns and fashion trends – a challenging task any time, and nearly impossible in late 2008 and early 2009, when, in addition to the normal fickle attitudes of shoppers, consumers were facing an unprecedented loss of wealth, rising job insecurity and severely curtailed access to credit.

We at Consensus have been busy preparing the analysis for the 2009-2010 Retailer Health Ratings™ (whose results will be revealed in a webcast June15). With data from the 158 retailers in this year’s list we have an enormous pool of information to analyze. Most businesses were blindsided by the macroeconomic upheaval in the 4th quarter of 2008, an upheaval that destroyed everything in its path, including the 2008 holiday shopping season. What does the data tell us about the strategies retailers employed for 2009?

In a challenge to retain profitability (and in some instances, viability) retail executives were faced with the challenge of trying to preserve revenue and/or conserve cash. Based on our extensive data analysis, roughly one-third of the retailers covered by the Retailer Health Ratings™ tried to drive revenue by lowering prices, as reflected by lowered gross margin in 2009. It is not necessarily true that the other two-thirds were in denial about the extent of the recession, but rather, given that drastic discounting was not enough to save Christmas 2008, retailers were not convinced that traumatized consumers would respond to price cuts.

Instead, management focused on conserving cash and controlling expenses. We found that 65% of retailers carried less inventory in 2009 than they did in 2010. Coming on the heels of four years with average annual inventory growth of nearly 7%, in 2009 inventory level decreased 3%, a fairly dramatic about-face.

More than four out of five companies reduced capital expenditures from 2008 to 2009. While 60% of companies increased their store count during the period, a large number of the new stores were commitments made prior to 4th quarter of 2008. Store count grew, on average, 2.8% from 2008 to 2009, approximately one-third the average growth rate over the previous three years. This decline in the rate of expansion supports the assumption that discretionary expansion was significantly curtailed.

In 2009, retailers were less certain than ever about what they could expect from consumers. Rather than trying to predict the effect of the unprecedented macroeconomic trauma of late 2008 and early 2009 on the minds of consumers, retailers went back to basics and focused on controlling items within their reach.

Apparel/Swimwear/Intimates

Betsy White

What Walmart Can Learn from Uniqlo to Boost Apparel Profits

With the launch of a Norma Kamali plus-size line this fall, Walmart has another great opportunity to save itself from its apparel woes. After all, the average woman is a size 14-16, so Walmart’s designer line is sure to appeal to plenty of consumers. But in order to effectively compete against arch-rival Target and get back to profitability in apparel, Walmart needs better strategies overall. From designing to merchandising and marketing, the folks in Bentonville would do well to study that uber-successful behemoth of basics – Uniqlo. First, Walmart needs to forget the competition’s strategy entirely. Though Target’s made quite a name for itself among bargain-hunting trend setters, the Walmart shopper is largely looking for mainstream basics. But who says wardrobe mainstays must be frumpy? Without going over-the-top but still infusing current styling, Uniqlo successfully peddled enough t-shirts, cardigans, and skinny jeans to rake in $7 billion in global sales last year. Another ingredient in Uniqlo’s secret sauce is quantity. The company aims to “ensure stores are stocked with the appropriate number of garments in terms of color and size so that customers can always get the products that they want.” Finally, Walmart needs to rethink its store traffic patterns. It’s no secret the retailer’s recession-era wins have been skewed to the less profitable grocery segment. People need to buy food even in bad times. As the country emerges from the economic slump, Walmart would do well to position its apparel across the wide aisle that separates food from the rest of the store stock.

Maverick Capital Moves into Clothing Retailers

Lee Ainslie, founder of New York-based Maverick Capital Management, purchased shares of retailers Men's Wearhouse and Abercrombie & Fitch during the first quarter. Both represent new positions for Ainslie, whose flagship hedge fund has gained 14% a year since its 1995 inception, twice that of the S&P 500 Index. Ainslie warned of "moribund consumer spending" in his 2009 annual letter. Still, he sees value in those two companies. He purchased nearly 3 million shares of both Men's Wearhouse, equaling 5.3% of the float, and Abercrombie, totaling 3.3% of shares outstanding. He now ranks as the fifth-largest shareholder of Men's Wearhouse and the seventh-biggest owner of Abercrombie. Men's Wearhouse has declined 12% in the past month as Abercrombie fell 19%. Interestingly, both companies swung to losses in the latest report periods.

J Crew Bridal Boutique Now Open

Getting married has never been so hip. Now open at 769 Madison, J.Crew's first-ever Bridal Boutique is a place to kick back and soak up some pre-marital bliss. From the sumptuously decorated ground floor to the luxe appointment salon downstairs, brides-to-be are guaranteed an experience that is, in true J.Crew fashion, comfy and casual without skimping on chic. At the store's kick-off event, Editor of Martha Stewart Weddings, Darcy MIller, bedecked in glistening J.Crew jewels, guided guests through racks of colorful cocktail dresses, sequined gowns and ruffled frocks, pointing out favorites and sifting through the lingerie drawers in a display table. Best of all? You don't have to hear wedding bells to get your shopping kicks at the Bridal Boutique. "We want everyone to feel welcome and comfortable," says head of Wedding Design, Tom Mora. "It doesn't matter if it's a wedding, a party, or a special event."

Why JoS. A. Bank's Profits Will Continue to Defy Gravity

Who cares if they are baggy, boxy, or (gasp!) even slightly shiny? The private label suits at Jos. A. Bank Clothiers are flying off the racks faster than you can say pinstripe. Ditto for ties, shirts, and other sartorial sundries as the men’s wear retailer managed to post an impressive 10 percent sales gain and a sharp rise in gross margin which translated to a 38 percent increase in first-quarter profits. The question now: how long can Bank keep it up? That’s not to say a company can’t continue to build on success. Bank’s been around since 1905 and weathered the Great Depression and other economic slumps. Indeed, CEO R. Neal Black reported that Bank’s achieved earnings growth in 34 of the past 35 quarters, making the current recession a mere blip on its radar. It’s the growth portion of Bank’s future strategy that demands attention. Over the past year, the retailer’s made the most of deep discounting (Doorbuster: get a $1300 suit for only $388.50!) and special offers such as the “no interest for six months” deal when customers spend over $500. Black did concede that shoppers continue to demand “aggressive pricing and eye-catching promotions,” especially now that buyers have shifted from purchasing pricier suits to sportcoats and shirts. But Bank certainly has wiggle room even if cotton prices continue to increase. The retailer’s balance sheet showed a 281 basis point improvement in gross margin, to 63.6 percent of sales.

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Athletic & Sporting Goods

Michael O'Hara

Dick's Sporting Goods to Open About 25 Stores

Coraopolis, Pa.-based Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. plans to open about 25 stores this year and an additional 25 stores in 2011, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The report also notes that the company may open more than the projected number of locations dependent upon shopping center development. Ed Stack, Dick’s CEO, confirmed long-term plans to open about 800 U.S. stores, according to the report. Dick’s is the nation's largest sporting goods retailer and currently operates 424 locations in 41 states, along with 91 of its Golf Galaxy golf superstores in 31 states.

Sport Chalet Slashes Q4 Loss, Comps Ahead 5.7%

Sport Chalet reported sales increased 6.8% in its fourth quarter ended March 28, to $90.2 million from $84.5 million a year ago. Same-store sales increased 5.7%. Due to the sales improvement and lower expenses, the net loss for the quarter was reduced to $0.3 million, or 2 cents per diluted share, from a loss of $11.1 million, or 79 cents, a year ago. Gross profit as a percent of sales increased to 27.7% compared to 19.8% for the fourth quarter of last year. The increase was primarily a result of decreased markdowns on winter products. SG&A as a percent of sales decreased to 24.3% from 28.5% in the same period last year, primarily due to savings of $3.2 million from cost containment initiatives, as well as the leverage from increased sales.

Remington Acquires 75% Stake in Mountain Khakis

Remington Arms Company, Inc. has bought a 75% stake in Mountain Khakis, LLC in a deal that will accelerate product development at the Charlotte, NC-based maker of mountain lifestyle clothing while expand Remington's foothold in the outdoor lifestyle market. The sale closed May 28, 2010. Mountain Khakis will continue day-to-day operations at their Charlotte, NC-based location under the guidance of Ross Saldarini, President.

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Catalog & Internet

Christopher Ellis

Richemont Group completes Net-A-Porter acquisition

Two months after making an offer, the Richemont Group has announced that its acquisition of shares in Net-A-Porter Ltd., owner of online luxury fashion retailer Net-A-Porter.com, has been completed. As a result of the acquisition, Richemont, the Swiss luxury goods conglomerate that owns a roster of high-end brands, such as Cartier and Van Cleef and Arpels, will hold an effective economic interest of more than 93 percent in the issued ordinary capital of Net-A-Porter, which has offices in London and New York. In a media release issued in early April to announce the offer, the Richemont Group said that the purchase offer, valued at 350 million pounds or about $534 million, had the support of both Net-A-Porter's senior management and the founder of the company, Natalie Massenet.

HauteLook Scoops Up $31 Million in Financing

The market for private online sample sales is only getting more competitive: HauteLook, which sells luxury clothing for women, men and children, as well as home furnishings and beauty products, has raised a fresh round of venture financing. Last week, the company announced a $31 million Series C round of financing led by Insight Venture Partners. The fresh round of cash will allow the company to increase its inventory, revamp some of the features on the Web site and introduce new categories like gourmet food and wine, gym packages and spa services, said Adam Bernhard, chief executive of HauteLook. Since its inception in December 2007, HauteLook has attracted more than 2.5 million members. The company’s business model is simple: HauteLook partners with brand-name labels to offer goods at deep discounts on the site, often as much as 75 percent.

Beyond Diapers.com

Marc Lore and Vinit Bharara, cofounders of online baby goods store Diapers.com, on Wednesday announced plans for a new website that will expand their $180 million e-commerce company into "everyday essentials" like toothpaste, toilet paper and shampoo. The new site, called Soap.com, is expected to launch in early July. Lore and Bharara say Soap.com will offer 25,000 products, at a 25% discount to drugstore prices. The site will use the same distribution channels as Diapers.com and offer an overnight delivery option to 70% of the country. Like Diapers.com, Soap.com will offer free shipping on orders of $49 or more; shipping on smaller orders will cost $3.99. Lore and Bharara believe that time-strapped shoppers will order these goods online--rather than buy them in drugstores, as needed--because Soap.com can deliver overnight.

When Internet Sales Rain, They Pour

Salman Rushdie wrote that “Trouble in a marriage is like monsoon rain on the roof – you don't know it's up there and then one day the whole house comes crashing down.” This is a message that could well be heeded by the commercial real estate industry. For, despite all the reassuring words from industry veterans about the primacy of the physical store, online sales of consumer goods are an increasingly heavy rain pitter-pattering away on the roofs of suburban shopping centres and strips around the globe. Hard data from overseas retail chains, and anecdotal evidence from independent retailers both here and abroad - combined with the proliferation of new kinds of online retail operators - suggests that continued complacency about the internet by property owners and retailers would be extremely foolish, if not outright suicidal.

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Consumer Electronics/Video/Audio

Douglas Stebbins

iPad Sparks New Way For Retailers to Advertise

In a move to gauge the iPad’s marketing potential, retailers and brands are starting to place interactive ads in digital magazine publications featured on the tablet, hoping their early adoption of new technology may help them swoon new consumers and target their primary audience. Macy’s is one of the first retailers to try their hand at pushing products on Apple's new tablet via ads in digital publications and the retailer is confident their efforts will pay off, Martine Reardon, Macy's executive vice president of marketing and advertising, said. The retailers’ ad is currently featured in over 20 magazines that are available for subscription on the iPad, including Elle, Harper’s Bazaar and Marie Claire. The ad for Macy’s appears in the publications as another page, but allows for the reader to also access a slideshow that features new items from Macy’s catalogue.

GameStop Shuffles Executives as It Plays Out Strategy

While the titles of almost all the top executives at GameStop Corp. were shuffled Wednesday, don't expect the company to run any differently. "We came in about 18 months ago and did a strategy review of the business, and we went to our board in April of 2009 and got some incremental funding for that strategy, and a lot of those strategies are hitting the market today," newly promoted chief executive Paul Raines, 46, said Wednesday. "In general, we feel pretty good about the strategy and plan to continue to execute it." The Grapevine-based video game retailer is coming off a strong quarter, and the new management roles were not a surprise to analysts.

Blockbuster’s Future Includes Fewer Stores

In the not so distant past, Friday and Saturday nights meant a steady stream of customers heading into Blockbuster stores. But the past is the past, and all the reports out of Dallas-based Blockbuster indicate the company is rapidly reshaping its platform to keep up with competitive demands. In other words, brick and mortar stores are losing luster; kiosks and digital platforms are shining. Blockbuster intends to close 500 to 545 company-owned stores by the end of the year, the retailer said.

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Cosmetics & Pharmacy

Billy Busko

L'Oréal Acquires Salon Distributor

To supplement its professional salon products distribution network, L’Oréal USA’s SalonCentric Division has acquired C.B. Sullivan Co., a New Hampshire-based distributor, with sales of approximately $50 million. C.B. Sullivan, founded in Manchester, N.H., 63 years ago, was converted to a professional salon distributor in 1980 when the founder’s son bought the business in 1980 and added L’Oréal’s Matrix brand to its mix. The deal brings L’Oréal closer to the salons and stores C.B. Sullivan services in Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts. The distributor employs 270 people and has 29 professional sales consultants and 31 professional stores. Over the past three years, L’Oréal’s Professional Products Division has made acquiring distributors a strategic focus to building better relationships with stylists and salons, and also to better control diversion.

Ulta Net Up 177.7 Percent

Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc.’s robust sales across the beauty chain lifted first-quarter earnings 177.7 percent. For the 13-week period ended May 1, the Bolingbrook, Ill.-based retailer generated net income of $13.7 million, or 23 cents a diluted share, compared with $4.9 million, or 8 cents, in the prior-year period. Net sales climbed 19.1 percent, to $320.2 million from $268.8 million, and were up 10.8 percent on a same-store basis. Ulta ended the quarter with 347 stores and plans to open approximately 46 new doors, remodel 13 and relocate six in fiscal 2010.

European Commission Looking Into Unilever, Sara Lee Deal

Unilever’s acquisition of Sara Lee’s body care and household business is being put under the microscope. The deal, which was announced in September, will be the focus of an in-depth investigation by the European Commission. “The merger creates significant overlaps in a number of products used by consumers on an everyday basis,” staated Joaquin Almunia, commission vice president and competition commissioner. “We need to make sure that if there are competition concerns these are duly addressed so that consumers are not harmed.” The commission has until Oct. 5 to make a decision.

P&G’s Consumer Changes to He from She with Men’s Thermal Scrubs

After spending decades luring women with products such as Olay skin cream, Procter & Gamble Co. is about to tell men they need pampering too. P&G will introduce a pre-shave thermal scrub, which it likens to a hot towel at the barber shop, along with a cooling after-shave moisturizer next week. The four products, selling for $7 to $9, make up the first skin-care line aimed at men since P&G’s $61 billion acquisition of Gillette five years ago. P&G is seeking to persuade buyers of Gillette razors to take better care of their skin after the company’s sales fell 3.3 percent last year. It’s also a further push into higher- margin beauty products for the world’s largest consumer-products company, which makes Charmin toilet paper and moved into cosmetics in the 1980s.

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Department & Discount Stores

Mark Lenz

Wal-Mart’s Uphill Battle with Apparel

Apparel is Wal-Mart Stores Inc.’s perennial Achilles’ heel — and the question remains whether it will ever be able to repair it. Even as the world’s largest retailer powered through the Great Recession while its competitors stumbled, apparel lagged while food and areas such as consumer electronics soared. And the problem has only become more intense now that the economy has begun to recover and Wal-Mart’s competitors are closing the gap. Wal-Mart is well aware of the weakness. Vice chairman Eduardo Castro-Wright last month said the retailer’s apparel business was “below expectations and continues to be a work in progress” as the company reported a 10 percent increase in profits to $3.32 billion in the first quarter ended April 30 on a 5.9 percent rise in sales to $99.85 billion, although same-store sales in the U.S. dropped 1.5 percent.

General Growth May Turn Over 13 Properties to Lenders

General Growth Properties Inc., the second-largest mall owner in the U.S., said it’s identified 13 “underperforming” retail properties that may be turned over to lenders after the company emerges from bankruptcy. General Growth has until two days after it exits bankruptcy to decide whether the properties, which serve as collateral on loans, should be deeded to lenders or the loans should be modified, the Chicago-based company said today in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company plans to leave Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection by Sept. 30, President Tom Nolan said last week. Of the 13 retail properties that may be turned over to lenders, which General Growth calls “special consideration properties,” five had emerged from bankruptcy protection as of the end of 2009. The company had a gain of $54.2 million related to their reorganization. The eight other properties emerged in the first quarter, resulting in a $69.3 million gain, General Growth said in today’s filing. The properties, consisting of 12 malls and one community center, are in Virginia, Michigan, Louisiana, Tennessee, Utah, Colorado, California and Florida, according to a list provided by a person with knowledge of the plans. The person asked not to be named because the properties haven’t been made public.

New Look Demurs on Float

New Look said it had not decided whether to reattempt a stock market flotation later this year after the clothing chain reported solid sales growth despite a difficult year in France and challenging economic conditions at home. Carl McPhail, chief executive, said no decision had been taken on a new attempt, the group having pulled a float last February amid concerns over market conditions and its £1bn debt pile. "We have not ruled anything out," said Mr McPhail. "We appointed banks in the run-up to the postponement but no one is doing anything specific on an IPO, I don't think the market is right. We don't know what is going to happen in the budget and there is likely to be uncertainty until we have that budget, particularly from a consumer's point of view." But Mr McPhail rejected concerns that New Look's debt was hindering a return to the market. New Look, which was taken off the market in 2004 by private equity groups Apax and Permira, had planned to use the £650m raised by the listing to reduce its debt. "Let's kill the myth of under-investment in private equity," he said. "We have invested £500m and we don't have any challenge on our debt until 2015."

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Footwear

Michael O'Hara

Report: Foot Locker Eyeing JJB Sports

Reports that Foot Locker Inc. is reviewing a possible acquisition or investment in JJB Sports sent shares of British retailer up, according to reports in British media. Trading volume in the stock surged, pushing its price up by 1.25p, or 8%, to 17p, according to a report in the Daily Mail's online news site. JJB narrowly avoided entering the British version of bankruptcy last year by selling off its fitness clubs and restructuring many of its store leases. Foot Locker is said to be on the prowl for ways to expand in Europe and the United Kingdom.

'Toning' Shoes Gain Traction

Eric Sprunk, vice-president for global product and merchandising at Nike (NKE), ended a speech to investors on innovation with a jab at the so-called toning shoes driving sales increases for competitors. "Wouldn't it be great if we could make a pair of shoes that made your butt smaller, made my gut look smaller, make your muscles look a little bit bigger, just by putting them on and...walking in them?" Sprunk asked his audience on May 5. "Nobody can do that. I was just teasing." The big market share gains that adidas's Reebok unit and Skechers USA are getting thanks to their toning shoe lines are no joke, however. Although Nike has held on to its top spot in the U.S. woman's athletic footwear market, its share slipped 7.2 percentage points, to 31 percent, or $412 million, in the first quarter from a year ago, according to researcher SportsOneSource. Reebok's share more than doubled, to 6.7 percent, or $90.3 million, and Skechers tripled to 17 percent, or $225.7 million. "Nike spent months watching this thing develop and did nothing about it and now they are paying the price of a missed opportunity," said Matt Powell, a sports retail analyst at SportsOneSource.

Shoe Carnival's Q1 Earnings More Than Double, Comps Run Up 13%

Shoe Carnival, Inc. reported sales for the first quarter increased 13.3% to $189.5 million from $167.3 million a year ago. Comparable store sales increased 13.1%. Net earnings jumped 124% to $9.2 million, or 72 cents a share, from $4.1 million, or 33 cents, a year ago. The gross profit margin for the first quarter of fiscal 2010 increased to 31.3% compared to 27.9% for the first quarter of fiscal 2009. The merchandise margin increased 2.2% due to significantly reduced promotional activity combined with strong sales of athletic and toning footwear compared to the prior year. The company's buying, distribution and occupancy costs decreased 1.2%, as a percentage of sales, due to the strong sales results. SG&A expenses for the first quarter of fiscal 2010 increased $4.2 million to $44.3 million, primarily as a result of increases in incentive compensation associated with the company's improved financial performance. As a percentage of sales, these expenses decreased to 23.4% compared to 24.0% in the first quarter of fiscal 2009.

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Gifts/Accessories/Luggage/Pets

Mark Boucher

Brookstone Announces Extension of Offer to Purchase or Exchange 12% Second Lien Secured Notes due 2012

Brookstone, Inc. announced the extension of the offer by Brookstone Company, Inc., its wholly-owned subsidiary, to purchase for cash or exchange any and all outstanding 12% Second Lien Secured Notes due 2012 of Brookstone Company, Inc. and the solicitation of consents to certain amendments of the related indenture. The offer to purchase or exchange and consent solicitation, which was scheduled to expire on June 4, 2010, has been extended to 5:00 p.m., New York City time, on June 18, 2010.

The Truth about Cat and Dog Food

A visit to a local supply store for pets has convinced me that many people’s pets eat better than their two-legged companions, or their companion’s children. Whatever you think your pet needs (dog or cat, that is, I’m not getting into nutrition for birds, rabbits, turtles and the many exotic animals people keep as pets), there is a product ready to meet it: vegetarian, organic, holistic, natural, raw, kosher, all-meat, gluten-free, high-fiber, high-protein, grain-free, low-fat, “lite” and anti-allergy. There are products for young and old pets and those with sensitive skin, sensitive stomachs and sensitive skin and stomachs, as well as foods enriched with supplements like antioxidants, omega-3 fatty acids, glucosamine and chondroitin, the value of which has yet to be established for people, let alone pets. So-called premium pet foods cost three to four times more than supermarket brands. Within the premium brands, there is also a wide price range, yet when the ingredients lists are compared, they are strikingly similar since all have to meet certain nutritional standards. The first five ingredients of nearly every kind of dog and cat food are generally the same, representing protein, fats and carbohydrates…“All pet foods are made from the byproducts of human food production,” Dr. Nestle explained. “No matter what the package says, your dog is not getting whole chicken breasts, but what remains after the breasts have been removed for human food.”

Longchamp Handbag Sales Reach Record Levels: CEO

French family-owned handbag maker Longchamp sees no slowdown in Europe in spite of the region's growing economic uncertainties, as sales reached record levels in the first months of the year, its head said. Longchamp Chief Executive Jean Cassegrain, grandson of the company's founder, told the Reuters Global Luxury Summit in Paris: "There are no concrete signs which would be causes of concern." Longchamp, one of the few fashion brands never to have posted a quarter of declining sales during the downturn, is positioned in the affordable luxury segment, with most of its products costing between 200 euros ($243) and 600. It competes with U.S.-based Coach, a recent arrival in Paris at the Printemps department store, as well as with Lancel, part of Richemont. Cassegrain said Longchamp's strong start of the year stemmed from an improved economic environment, notably in its big markets in Europe and in the United States, as well as from its partnership with model Kate Moss. Longchamp launched this year a collection of bags designed by Moss which Cassegrain said was very successful and was partly behind the brand's 25 percent rise in sales between February and April, against the same period last year.

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Grocery/Healthy Foods/Snacks/Confectionery

Mark Boucher

99 Cents Only Tests Food-Pricing Initiatives

99 Cents Only Stores is testing the sale of gallons of milk at market prices and produce by the pound in its 32 Texas stores and is beginning to expand some of those tests to stores in California, the company said in a conference call discussing earnings this week. “The one comment we get most from people in the stores is that they go to the supermarket for gallons of milk because the quarts we sell don't cut it for a big family” said Eric Schiffer, chief executive officer. “So we put gallons of milk into the Texas stores, and we've had very positive reaction. Obviously we can't sell a gallon of milk for a buck, so our price range depends on the weekly price we pay, and our prices are, if not the best in town, as good as anybody else, and we feel that helps drive business to our stores.” The company is also testing offering produce by the pound instead of 99 cents per package, Schiffer added. “We're making upgrades to our point-of-sale systems to allow us to do a lot more of these things with pricing," he explained.

Costco Plans Additional Private-Label Consumables

Costco Wholesale Corp. said it intends to introduce additional canned and packaged goods under its Kirkland Signature label over the next few months. Richard Galanti, executive vice president and chief financial officer, declined to pinpoint the specific items the company will offer, “but we're prepared to try everything,” he said. "We tried a private-label mayonnaise two or three years ago, and a peanut butter, and under-whelmed everyone, so not everything works,” Galanti said. “But most things do work, and not a whole lot is sacrosanct in terms of branded goods.” Costco's goal, he noted, is to get private label sales up to 37%, “but that will take some time.”

Savored by the Palate, or as Part of a Portfolio

A simple Internet real estate ad caught Filip Opdebeeck’s eye in 2007: “Strongbox for rent.” The strongbox turned out to be a three-room vault beneath one of the many banks in this Swiss financial center, one room originally for bank archives, another for stock certificates, the third for gold. Today, the vault, 3,200 square feet and 30 feet below ground, holds a rather different sort of investment — about 40,000 bottles of wine — most of it part of portfolios owned, fittingly, by many bankers, but also by diplomats, professionals and others who just enjoy their glass of Saint Émilion, Romanée Conti or Mondavi. The vault’s newly installed racks, which resemble the stacks of a library, hold mostly French wines from the Bordeaux region, but also wines from Italy, Chile, Argentina, Australia and California’s Napa Valley. Mr. Opdebeeck estimates the vault’s capacity at about 100,000 bottles. Wine economists, like Philippe Masset of the Lausanne Hotel School, just up the north shore of Lake Geneva, say the inclusion of wine in an investment portfolio is increasingly common, especially prestigious wines like the reds of France’s Bordeaux region. Those have invariably increased in value, he says, even during the financial crisis of 2008.

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Home Improvement/Auto Repair

Billy Busko

Is Digital Revolution Driving Decline in U.S. Car Culture?

The internet has wreaked havoc on the music industry, airlines and media, but it just may be doing the same thing to automobiles. It's a rarely acknowledged transformational shift that's been going on under the noses of marketers for as long as 15 years: The automobile, once a rite of passage for American youth, is becoming less relevant to a growing number of people under 30. And that could have broad implications for advertisers in industries far beyond insurance, gasoline and retail. Certainly it's hard to believe for anyone stuck in traffic on the way to O'Hare airport in Chicago, a bridge or tunnel into Manhattan, any freeway in Los Angeles, or the newly repaved four-lane highway to a suburban Wal-mart. But look around, and the people in the other cars are likely to be in their 40s or older.

Lowe's Embraces House Calls

The idea of stacking it high and letting it fly has proven successful for big-box retailing, but when it comes to selling exterior products, Lowe's sees a better way: house calls. During the Janney Montgomery Scott Consumer Conference last week, Lowe's president and chief operating officer Larry Stone pointed to a relatively new abbreviation: PSE, which stands for Project Specialist-Exteriors. That's the person who goes into the home to make the sale for exterior products. Windows, doors, fencing and roofing are all examples of categories where a project specialist can actually see the project, as opposed to talking about the project in the store. "If you start thinking about those categories, it just lends itself more to people going to visit the home, versus trying to do it inside the store." Creating the ability to provide house calls from Lowe's project specialists is an investment in future sales, Stone said. "We think it is the way consumers want to buy products from us in the future, so we think it opens up a lot of different avenues for us." Testing has been under way for about three years, with models running in Philadelphia, Dallas and Atlanta.

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Housewares/Furniture

Billy Busko

Strong Q1 Sales for Kitchen Electrics

Sales of small kitchen appliances are on the rebound, with gains of 10% in the first quarter of 2010 compared with last year, according to the NPD Group. Unit sales were up by nearly 6%, continuing an upward trend in the category that began in the last quarter of 2009. Products like electric grills and griddles, food processors, coffee/espresso makers, deep fryers, electric skillets and slow cookers generated double-digit dollar and unit growth in the 12 months ending March 2010, compared with the same time in 2009, the market research group reported. “Consumers are continuing their cost-cutting ways by spending more time at home and cooking more,” said Peter Goldman, president of NPD’s home division. “Alternatively, there is an increased demand for more premium-priced products such as single-serve coffeemakers, stand mixers and juice extractors.”

Mattress Sales Up 11 Percent in April

U.S. sales of mattresses jumped 11.3 percent on a dollar basis year over year in April, totaling $273.1 million, according to the latest Bedding Barometer report from the International Sleep Products Association. The most recent report is another indication that the mattress industry has turned in a positive direction, after spending much of the past two years in the doldrums. On a unit basis, mattress sales reached 944,585 in April, up 8.7 percent from April of last year. The average unit selling price for the mattresses sold was $289.12, a 2.4 percent increase over the prior year.

Pier 1 Reports Strong Q1 Sales

Home-goods retailer Pier 1 Imports said same-store sales surged in the first quarter as consumers spent more on their homes, sending its shares up as much as 15 percent. An improving economy has renewed demand for home goods, benefiting Pier 1 and larger rivals Williams-Sonoma and Bed Bath & Beyond. Unlike prior years when it offered fewer items in large numbers, Pier 1 now gives shoppers more choice by offering a wider array of decorative items, while managing inventory purchasing decisions to hold prices on merchandise. Same-store sales in the quarter, which rose 14.3 percent, benefited in March from an early Easter holiday and stayed solid through the rest of the quarter, ending with a strong Memorial Day weekend, the company said.

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IP Holding Companies & Multi-brand Companies

Douglas Stebbins

Former Hilco Chief Raises $250 Million to Buy Brands

Authentic Brands Group LLC, headed by the former chief executive officer of Hilco Consumer Capital, raised $250 million to acquire consumer brands. James Salter, the CEO and chairman of Authentic Brands, worked with an affiliate of Leonard Green & Partners LP and Knight’s Bridge Capital Partners Inc. to secure the funds, the groups said today in a statement. Salter left Hilco Consumer Capital in January. At Hilco, he oversaw the acquisition of brands such as Linens ‘n Things and Polaroid in partnership with Gordon Brothers Group. His new venture will seek companies in the $100 million to $300 million valuation range, he said today in a telephone interview.

Scripps Completes Sale of United Media to Iconix

The E.W. Scripps Company has completed the sale of its character licensing business to Iconix Brand Group, Inc. for $175 million in cash. The sale price is subject to a post-closing adjustment for working capital. United Media Licensing works with more than 1,250 licensees in approximately 40 countries. The majority of licensing revenue is generated by products associated with the characters of the Peanuts comic strip, which Scripps brought to market in 1950. Scripps still owns United Media's syndication operation and will continue to syndicate comic strips and editorial features that are developed and marketed worldwide through United Feature Syndicate and Newspaper Enterprise Association. A range of options is being considered for the after-tax proceeds from the sale. Making voluntary, tax-advantaged contributions to the company's defined benefit pension plans is among the top priorities.

Sports Trumps Doughnuts in Ranking of Top Brands

In New England, ESPN, General Electric, and Dunkin’ Donuts are among the most powerful brands. Those three top a list being released today recognizing the 25 most powerful consumer brands in the region. Protobrand, a Boston branding firm, interviewed about 350 marketing professionals across the country to rate the brands in seven categories: brand momentum, distinctiveness, uniqueness, quality, loyalty, admiration, and whether experience working with the brand enhances a marketing professional’s resume. L.L. Bean (number six), the outdoorsy Maine merchant; Staples (number 10), the Framingham office supply chain; and Samuel Adams (number eight), the Boston beer company, also took spots in the Top 10.

Boomer Brands Get a Second Life

When executives at Akeena Solar wanted to give their solar panels some mainstream appeal, they looked for a way to bring brand name recognition to their little-known Andalay solar panels. Enter Westinghouse. The once powerful conglomerate—whose appliances could be found in many American kitchens during its prime—is now a trademark owned by CBS. Westinghouse approached Akeena Solar about a licensing deal that would put the famous “W” logo on the solar panels. After market research, Akeena Solar agreed to the deal. "All you have to do now is slap that name on it and you get all the benefits of the years and money spent on building that brand,” says Rob Frankel, a branding expert and author of "The Revenge of Brand X." "It immediately leverages generations of messaging that was consistent and that spoke to quality." The deal between Akeena Solar and Westinghouse, announced last week, is only one example of the revival of once-mighty brands that disappeared from commerce but still hold valuable name recognition and are now being revived by other companies. Two other examples are RCA, which is licensed similarly to Westinghouse, and PF Flyers, a nearly gone brand revived by a new company.

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Jewelry/Mining

Mark Lenz

High Gold Price to Lower Jewelry Sales

Sales of pure gold jewelry are expected to fall significantly as prices of the yellow metal are rising steadily on the back of the euro zone crisis and the ensuing economic instability. On Tuesday, gold touched Rs 19,000 per 10 gm in New Delhi, a record, due to demand from the ongoing marriage season. Jewelry retailers, however, indicated that hardening prices would deter consumers from pure gold purchases, leading to a drop in volumes. Instead, a robust increase in sales of studded, especially diamond jewelry, could be expected in the coming months, said analysts.

The Luxury Market Turns Its Attention Back to Core Customers

When news emerged in mid-April that luxury department store chain Barneys New York was looking for a new CEO, many people in the luxury retail sector viewed it as a good omen. Earlier in the year, Barneys New York kept popping up in the headlines. The chain, which specializes in high-end fashion apparel, had been facing falling sales for most of last year and an uncomfortably large, $500 million debt load since Dubai-based investment firm Istithmar World Capital bought it for $942 million in 2007. For a while, rumor had it that Barneys might be on the brink of bankruptcy and that investor Ronald Burkle was angling to acquire a controlling stake in the business in exchange for $50 million in cash. In late 2009, Burkle’s firm, Los Angeles-based Yucaipa Cos., had already bought a large portion of Barneys’ secured term loan and subordinate debt from its lenders. Publicly, Istithmar’s owners denied they were seriously considering Burkle’s offer, but from the outside, it certainly looked like the chain had fallen on hard times.

Polished Diamond Demand Pushes Prices Higher in May

Global polished diamond prices rebounded to their highest level in 18 months during May. The IDEX Online Polished Diamond Price Index rose to 116.5 for May; it last stood at this level in December 2008. May’s IDEX Online Index indicates that diamond prices have recovered nearly half of their precipitous decline that occurred in 2009. Global polished diamond prices bottomed at 108 during the summer and early fall of 2009, just over 7 percent below their current level. At its height, the IDEX Online Polished Diamond Price Index stood at just above 128 in August 2008, almost 11 percent higher than today’s average prices. Over the past year, the IDEX Online Polished Price Index has risen by 7.1 percent; based on average prices during April and May 2010, it has risen by 1.6 percent on a month-to-month basis.

Luxury Industry Bets on U.S. and China

Europe's brewing economic crisis is threatening to halt luxury's rebound, but the industry is banking on growth from China and a recovering U.S. market. Leading executives from luxury retailers and design houses told the Reuters Global Luxury Summit that demand for fine merchandise was picking up in the United States, while China's shoppers were venturing frequently into Tokyo for top brands. "The euro zone is a sizable market, but today the growth reserve is in the emerging countries, and particularly in China, whose demand is pulling the entire sector," said Isabelle Ardon, head of Paris-based SG Gestion's luxury fund. "For the Chinese consumer, luxury is synonymous with Western heritage. Today there are no big Chinese luxury brands, so there are no competitors", she said. Last week, upscale U.S. jewelry retailer Tiffany & Co. reported that sales at its Asian stores open at least a year, excluding those in Japan, had risen by 21 percent during its most recent quarter. It operates 11 stores in China.

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Office/Crafts & Hobby/Flowers/Party

Mark Lenz

Borders Chairman is Appointed Chief

The Borders Group said that the financier Bennett LeBow, the company’s chairman and largest shareholder, was named chief executive. The interim chief, Michael J. Edwards, will oversee its main book-selling business on a day-to-day basis, it said. Last month, Mr. LeBow invested $25 million and took a 15.5 percent stake in the bookstore chain. That overtook Pershing Square Capital Management as the struggling retailer’s largest shareholder. Mr. Edwards said Mr. LeBow had been tapped for his financial expertise and his strong relationships with Wall Street as the company looks to carry out its digital strategy in an effort to stem its sales decline.

Jo-Ann Stores Doubles Earnings

Jo-Ann Stores, the fabric and crafts retailer, had a resounding first quarter of its 2011 fiscal year. Income, revenue and same-store sales were all up. The company improved its gross margins, lowered debt and positioned itself for sustainable success as the economy heads into recovery. Jo-Ann Stores fared well even through the recession. A look at its earnings for the last three years shows earnings per share of $2.57 in fiscal 2010, 87 cents in fiscal 2009, and 62 cents in fiscal 2008. This was achieved in the face of the awful times that home goods retailers faced during the recession. Jo-Ann Stores' unique niche, however, of sewing, crafts and hobbies put it in a better place than, say, a Pier 1 Imports or a Sears Holdings with their much more unfocused softlines.

Target Launches Kindle Nationwide

Target Corporation continued its commitment to making Kindle, Amazon’s bestselling product, available to its guests with a June 6 nationwide roll-out. Target is the first brick-and-mortar retailer to carry the reading device. “Our guest’s response to Kindle has been overwhelmingly positive,” said Mark Schindele, senior vice president, Target. “We are thrilled to bring guests nationwide this incredibly light, portable, easy-to-read product that allows them to get all the news and books they want.”

Staples Focuses On Growing Tech, Services

As its core customers emerge from the recession, business is good again at Staples, allowing the company to focus on its growth plans. "Five years from now, we'll be more focused on our delivery business, with a higher mix of technology, and sell more private-label products," Ron Sargent, Staples' chairman/CEO, told investors attending the 26th Sanford Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, which was webcast. "There will be more services in our mix, because there is not a lot of inventory and the margins are great. And we're going to grow internationally. We're on a glide path to do all that." While this recession definitely hit the Framingham, Mass.-based retailer hard, he says he sees progress.

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Restaurants/Food Service

Mark Boucher

Sun Capital Buys Bar Louie

With merger-and-acquisition activity continuing to boil, private-equity firm Sun Capital Partners Inc. said Wednesday it has acquired Bar Louie Restaurants, owner of the 44-unit namesake casual-dining chain. Based in Glenview, Ill., Bar Louie debuted in Chicago in 1991, and is known as a “progressively hip neighborhood restaurant and bar” with an American comfort food menu. The chain was sold by Restaurants-America, the multi-concept operator of such brands as Red Star Tavern, The Grillroom, Bluepoint and Primebar, each of which have locations based primarily in the Midwest. Bar Louie Development Inc., the franchising arm of the chain, was launched in 2005. Restaurants outside of Bar Louie’s Chicago-area roots are located in Pittsburgh; Columbus, Ohio; Washington, D.C.; Tampa, Fla.; and Foxborough, Mass. Terms of the deal between Sun Capital and Restaurants-America were not disclosed.

Couche-Tard Begins Tender Offer for Casey’s

Alimentation Couche-Tard, the Canadian convenience store operator, went hostile in its pursuit of Casey’s General Stores, beginning a tender offer for its American counterpart and announcing its plan to nominate an alternate slate of directors. Couche-Tard said that it would pay $36 a share in cash for shares in Casey’s, the same price it offered nearly two months ago. The tender price is below the $36.34 that Casey’s shares closed at on Tuesday, though Couche-Tard said that it was at a premium to where Casey’s shares were trading before the first offer was announced. Couche-Tard also said that it would nominate a rival slate of nine directors unless Casey’s agreed to begin merger discussions. Casey’s has rejected the Couche-Tard approach as too low.

McDonald's Recalls 'Shrek' Glasses

McDonald's USA is recalling an estimated 12 million “Shrek Forever After” promotional drinking glasses after learning the designs on the cups contained cadmium, a known carcinogen. McDonald's began selling the 16-ounce glasses May 21. After collaborating with the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, the fast-food company determined “in an abundance of caution” that a recall was necessary, even though an independent laboratory determined the glasses to be nontoxic and in compliance with all federal and state requirements for levels of cadmium in manufactured products. In January, CPSC led a recall of children’s jewelry manufactured in China and sold in such American retailers as Walmart and Dollar N More. Those products had replaced typical lead with as much as 91 percent cadmium, which also is found in cigarette smoke and has been linked to certain kidney and lung ailments. McDonald’s will begin posting instructions June 8th on a special website, www.mcdonalds.com/glasses, for how customers can return the Shrek glasses and obtain a refund. Concerned customers also may call (800) 244-6227 for more information.

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Banking & Lending

Douglas Stebbins

TARP's Tiniest Failures Add Up

It might seem that the banking sector's bailout saga is nearing its close, leaving room to focus on other catastrophes like the European debt crisis or the Gulf oil spill, but some small banks across the country that benefited from TARP are still struggling to stay afloat, and many more will likely fail. And while the Treasury Department and the Obama Administration have justifiably lauded TARP for preventing another catastrophic bank failure, the fact that hundreds of smaller TARP recipients are missing their dividend payments suggests that these banks should never have received government money to begin with. TARP was originally created as a direct response to a credit crisis brought on by the subprime mortgage crisis. But not all of the small banks that received bailout funds through the Capital Purchase Program came into dire straits as a result of the subprime mortgage-lending crisis -- many of them were failing due to their own mismanagement, having nothing to do with the credit crisis at all.

Card Issuers' Novel Ways Outflank Law

U.S. banks are finding new ways to levy credit-card fees and raise interest rates in the wake of a one-year-old law that was designed to limit such charges. The banks' new approaches are being scrutinized by federal banking regulators. First Premier Bank, known for pursuing customers with weak credit, is circumventing a provision limiting fees assessed on accounts in their first year by charging a $95 processing fee, before the card is ever used. Citigroup Inc., mindful of the limits to raising customers' rates for late payments, lifted some customers' interest rates in advance and then offered a partial refund on the finance charges if they paid on time. Both companies said the practices were within the law. The jockeying underscores how the new restrictions on credit cards leave opportunities for banks to compensate for lost profits with other practices.

If Stores Pay Less for Card Use, Will You?

Congress is mulling changes to the fees and restrictions that banks and credit card companies can place on merchants that accept credit and debit cards, but the changes may not have as positive an effect on consumers as retailers have suggested. Provisions being negotiated in the House and Senate as part of the financial reform package would require the Federal Reserve Board to determine what would be "reasonable and proportional" fees for debit card transactions, which are about 1 percent of the transaction. The bill also would allow retailers to offer discounts for cash, check or low-fee credit card purchases, and remove prohibitions on minimum purchases required for credit or debit purchases.

Those are the latest headlines. Thank you for reading.

Sincerely,

The Team at Consensus

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